در خلال تغییرات سریع جهانی شهرها تغییر الگویی را تجربه میکنند که بزرگراه یکی از آنها است و نقش مهمی را در جابجایی و دسترسی شهری ایفا میکنند. در همین راستا باید تاثیراتی که بر شهر میگذارند نیز مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. روش پژوهــش حاضر توصیفی-تحلیلی و از نــوع کاربردی است و استخراج شاخصها با شیوه دلفی در سه راند، ابتدا از متخصصین خواسته شده تا شاخصها و عوامل موثر را بیان کنند و در مرحله بعدی شاخص بیان شده دستهبندی و نهایی شدهاند و در راند آخر به تعیین امتیازات عوامل پرداخته شده است. لذا 10 نسخه پرسشنامه جهت تعیین امتیازات عوامل توسط کارشناسان تکمیل شده و با بهرهگیری از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع که یکی از روشهای متداول و مورد پذیرش آیندهنگاری است، به تحلیل مؤلفههای موثر در ارتباط با بزرگراهها پرداخته است. تعداد 24 عامل در ارتباط با تاثیرات بزرگراه مورد بررسی قرار داده شده و در نهایت با جداول و نمودارهای مستخرج از این نرمافزار تحلیل عوامل انجام گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان میدهد از میان شاخصها و عواملی که مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند، متغیرهای میزان تغییر شبکه راهها، میزان استفاده از حمل و نقل موتوری، مسیر پیاده و دوچرخه، عملکرد و کارایی کاربری اراضی، میزان آلودگی آبهای سطحی، جهت گسترش شهر و میزان جریان باد و هوا حائز اهمیت ویژهای هستند و متغیر میزان تغییر شبکه راهها و میزان استفاده از حمل و نقل موتوری، بیشترین تاثیرات بزرگراههای درون شهری میباشند، به طور کلی این موارد 7 عامل کلیدی اثرات بزرگراههای درون شهری هستند که باید در روند برنامه ریزیهای خرد و کلان در جهت بهبود وضعیت شهر و بزرگراهها به آنها توجه ویژهای کرد.
تازه های تحقیق
- تحلیل اثرات ایجاد بزرگراه های درون شهری بر شهر
- متغیرهایی با بیشترین تاثیر بر بزرگراه عبارتند از: میزان تغییر شبکه راه ها، میزان استفاده از حمل و نقل موتوری، مسیر پیاده و دوچرخه، عملکرد و کارایی کاربری اراضی، میزان آلودگی آب های سطحی، جهت گسترش شهر و میزان جریان باد و هوا
- استفاده از پرسشنامه و نرم افزار میک مک برای تحلیل به روش آینده نگاری و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع
عنوان مقاله [English]
Analyzing the effects of creating urban highways on the city using a futuristic approach
Background and objectives: With the increasing population and the scattered growth of cities, especially in cities with a focus on personal transportation, we are witnessing the creation and expansion of road networks, especially highways. Transportation can be considered as one of the pivotal elements and plays a role in the growth and development of the city. So, it is important to pay attention to the problems of transportation problems such as problems related to transportation inside and outside the city and traffic problems and noise and air pollution, waste of time and capital. Managers and urban planners have sought to solve these problems, and some urban planners believe that highway construction is one way to improve transportation and mitigate related issues and problems, but others believe that highways are incapable of answering existing problems. Issues such as heavy traffic on city highways that need a lot of time and money to cross, which led cities such as Portland, San Francisco, Boston, Seoul, etc. to adopt the approach of highway demolition and attention to pedestrianization. It should be noted that the importance of the discussion of displacement and speed of movement should not cause neglect of the sidewalks. In developed countries, while using highways and ensuring the safety and security of citizens, they also solve related problems. Highways are linear infrastructures that change the structure, functions, and environmental resources of a territory and have both positive and negative characteristics. Due to the lack of planning of Mabna neighborhood in metropolises and their physical expansion, and further due to the need to access other parts of highways in today's cities, but due to the negative effects of their creation, the development of integrated public transport The introduction of clean transport (walking and cycling) has reduced the importance of highways in the cities of developed countries until now, and theories about the destruction of highways have been formed in the world literature. Thus, according to the mentioned issues, studies should be done on the effects of highways on the city, and then it was decided to create or not to create and expand them. Impacts of highway construction on various factors such as physical (performance and efficiency of land use, for the development and physical expansion of the city, sidewalks and bicycles, etc.), economic (land prices, local economy, income, etc.), Social (safety, tranquility, security, etc.) and natural (wind and air flow rate, vibration rate, urban landscape) are classified. The construction of highways requires huge costs, but the problems of their implementation are not limited to their heavy costs; It also has many negative effects, especially on neighboring neighborhoods. So to the negative effects, they also have special points and benefits. Now, in this article, the effects of highways in cities have been studied in the form of various factors and each of them has been explained in detail.
Method: The present research method is descriptive-analytical of applied type. Extraction of indicators affecting highways from information and documents has been used. The impact analysis of each of these indicators was done by futuristic method and cross-impact analysis. Cross-sectional analysis method is one of the futuristic methods that tries to achieve possible scenarios in the future for a subject by causal relationships between the factors affecting a subject. In this research, after extracting some indicators by Delphi method in three rounds, first, experts are asked to complete the indicators and effective factors, and in the next stage, the expressed indicators are classified and finalized, and in the last round, the scores are determined. Factors are discussed, which are scored from 0 to 3 and (P possible effects) and entered into Mick Mac software. Thus, 10 copies of the questionnaire have been completed by experts to determine the scores of factors and by using the method of cross-impact analysis, which is one of the common and accepted methods of futurism, has analyzed the effective components related to highways. A total of 24 factors related to highway impacts have been examined and finally, factor analysis has been performed with tables and diagrams extracted from this software. The outputs of this method classify the factors affecting the highways into 5 categories of risk variables, effective, secondary leverage, independent and dependent, and show its pattern of stability or instability.
Findings: The variables of changing the road network, the use of motor transport, the existence of pedestrian and bicycle paths, land use and efficiency, surface water pollution, for the development of the city and the amount of wind and air flow, and especially highways, have the greatest impact. The variable of road network and the amount of motor transport use are placed on the variable, and the rest of the variables are placed in the next categories; But in general, these are the 7 key factors of the effects of urban highways, which Also to being key factors and drivers, in the sense that with the creation and expansion of highways, the use of motor transport should also increase or One side changes for the development of the city with the construction and expansion of highways. The road network is also affected by this change, meaning that the roads that form the skeleton of the city will change, and so will the other variables in the creation and expansion of highways, either effective or influential, so in the plans and programs, any He examined one of the indicators and paid attention to it.
Conclusion: The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of creating urban highways with futuristic method and expert analysis and finally with the help of Mick Mac software. During rapid global change, cities experience a paradigm shift, of which the highway is one, and play an important role in urban mobility and access. In this regard, the positive and negative effects they have on cities are also important. In the present study, which was performed using the method of cross-impact analysis and based on data obtained from the above documents, it was confirmed that the system of highway effects on the city is an unstable system. Also, based on the results of the analysis performed through Mick Mac software, it was determined that among the 24 factors affecting highways in the city, three factors are "change of road network", "rate of motor transport use" and "pedestrian route". And "bicycle" were identified as the main factors that should be given special attention in the course of the project and related projects. Finally, also to the categories performed, according to what was stated, among the variables expressed are 7 variables, changing the road network, the amount of motor transport use, pedestrian and bicycle path, performance and land use efficiency. , Surface water pollution, for the development of the city and the amount of wind and air flow, are among the key variables and drivers that the creation of intra-city highways have a special effect on them and special attention should be paid to them related urban projects.